Deals are happening—but with bigger trade-offs. In their mid-year 2025 outlook, PwC highlight how M&A volumes are down globally, values are rising, and uncertainty has become a defining feature of dealmaking. Here are the top takeaways.
Key Findings
| Finding | Insight |
|---|---|
| Volumes down, values up | Global M&A volumes dropped by ~9% in H1 2025 versus H1 2024, yet values rose ~15%. Fewer deals overall, but more larger deals. |
| Mega-deals doing heavy lifting | Deals over US$1bn grew meaningfully; transactions >US$5bn also up. The biggest deals are pushing total value up even as count falls. |
| Sector divergence | Sectors like aerospace & defence, chemicals, power & utilities, and asset & wealth management saw growth in both volume & value. In contrast, pharmaceuticals, consumer/retail, automotive and industrials saw declines in both. Tariff susceptibility, regulatory uncertainty, and cross-border risk are key factors. |
| Regional shifts | • Americas: Deal values +26%; volumes down ~12%. • Asia Pacific: Volumes down, values up; India up ~18% volume. • EMEA: Declines in both value & volume (~6-7%). |
| Multiples falling back | After rising post-COVID, global median EV/EBITDA multiples peaked at ~14.3x in Sept 2024, but by 2025 they are down to ~10.8x. Declines most pronounced in Europe & Asia Pacific. |
| Private equity exits are choking | The backlog of PE-held portfolio companies is large (~30,000+ worldwide), many held since 2020. Exit activity is weak, IPO markets soft. More exits needed to relieve pressure. |
| Uncertainty is structural | Rising long-term interest rates, geopolitical risk, tariff ambiguity, regulatory shifts—these aren’t momentary headaches but persistent conditions. Dealmakers are being more cautious, executing scenario planning, and choosing quality. |
| Winning strategies | Key approaches for navigating today’s M&A: • Focus on high-quality targets with strong cash flows • Build robust scenario planning • Prioritise value creation from Day One • Stay agile while maintaining discipline • Anchor on long-term themes (AI, supply-chain resilience, climate, etc.) |
What to Watch Next
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Trajectory of interest rates: will they ease, and how will that affect deal financing and valuations?
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Government debt levels & fiscal pressures in key markets, which could constrain spending and dampen business confidence.
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Cross-border deal activity: whether buyers continue to favor domestic or regional deals over more complex international transactions.
Takeaway
In short: M&A is not in retreat—but it’s being redefined. With high uncertainty as the backdrop, value is shifting toward resilient, well-positioned companies; dealmakers are more selective; and strategy matters now more than ever. For those who move decisively – with discipline, clarity, and agility – the current environment offers both risk andopportunity.
If you want the full data, charts, and sector/region-breakdowns, check out PwC’s full report:
PwC: Global M&A Industry Trends — 2025 Mid-Year Outlook
